Check out my book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": https://amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at https://amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (I use affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. Even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.) The world is expecting Ukraine to begin a spring counterattack once the weather dries up. How will it affect the war? This video examines the possibility that the offensive could lead to an end of the invasion. In particular, we cover three possibilities. First, Ukraine could outright win. Second, it could demonstrate to Russia that the ultimate outcome will be favorable to Ukraine, thereby inducing Russia to withdraw. Finally, it could put Putin in a position where winning is very unlikely, forcing him to confront possible challengers at home rather than trying to gamble for resurrection abroad. Although none of these are particularly likely, we will investigate the conditions where they could arise. 0:00 The Upcoming Ukrainian Counteroffensive 0:51 An Outright Ukrainian Victory 7:55 Uprisings in Moscow 8:43 Communicating Ukrainian Strength 11:47 Chinese Intelligence Sharing 15:35 Putin's Personal Incentives 19:54 Chinese Peace Subsidies 23:52 Overall Outlook 24:52 Lines on Pants Media licensed under CC BY 2.0 (https://www.flickr.com/photos/secdef/51897828943): From U.S. Secretary of Defense: https://www.flickr.com/photos/secdef/51897828943 https://flickr.com/photos/68842444@N03/45401333091 Media licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/): From Ministry of Defense of Ukraine: https://www.flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/26206896373 https://www.flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/38976505905 https://www.flickr.com/photos/ministryofdefenceua/26002333708 https://armyinform.com.ua/2022/12/07/herson-pid-vorozhymy-obstrilamy/ Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/): From armyinform.com.ua: https://armyinform.com.ua/2022/12/07/herson-pid-vorozhymy-obstrilamy/ From Rosavtodor.ru: http://rosavtodor.ru/about/upravlenie-fda/upravlenie-stroitelstva-i-ekspluatatsii-avtomobilnykh-dorog/transportnyy-perekhod-cherez-kerchenskiy-proliv/novosti/301381 From Kremlin.ru: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/17768 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50329 http://www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52152 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52820 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53027 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53857 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55052 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55063 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56046 http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56327 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/security-council/58065 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58405 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58548 http://www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/60490 http://en.kremlin.ru/catalog/persons/351/events/60669 http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61467 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62039 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/trips/62560 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/trips/62614 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67712 http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67825 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68605 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69060 http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69390 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69465 http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70029 http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70674 http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70742 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70748 http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70942