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Description:
While the hardest fighting in Ukraine takes place on land, the Black Sea front saw a stand-off through most of 2022 and early 2023. Russia's fleet was ranged away from the coast by AShMs, but continued to fire cruise missiles from afar.
As time has gone on, the fighting has evolved and new weapons have been deployed, including long range drones. At the same time, the deal which allowed millions of tonnes of foodstuffs to safely transit the Black Sea now seems to have ended, setting the stage for a potential escalation in fighting and a potential blockade.
In this episode, I look at the naval war in 2023, the strikes on the bridge, and the potentially vast implications of the end of the grain export deal.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats and corrections:
All standard caveats and comments apply
At one point I refer to Russia's reasons for 'remaining' in the grain deal. From context I hope it's clear I mean to refer to the decision to leave/not renew it.
Reporting & reading:
Relevant TASS Reporting:
https://tass.com/politics/1571451
https://tass.com/defense/1650349
https://tass.com/emergencies/1648153
https://tass.com/politics/1648201
https://tass.com/economy/1648647
https://tass.com/economy/1651875
https://tass.com/politics/1650421
https://tass.com/economy/1649315
https://tass.com/politics/1631649
Turkish efforts last year::
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/31/grain-exports-continue-despite-russian-withdrawal
US claims of russian mine laying
https://news.usni.org/2023/07/19/russia-says-all-ships-in-the-black-sea-heading-to-ukraine-are-potential-carriers-of-military-cargo
Reporting on grain deal
https://www.politico.eu/article/the-black-sea-grain-deal-is-all-but-dead-what-next/
https://apnews.com/article/grain-import-ban-ukraine-russia-war-85491c0420045fca26ad37907e3e0d74 (grain import bans in EU)
https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-sees-no-grounds-renew-grain-deal-foreign-ministry-2023-07-04/
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/20/at-least-11-hurt-in-russian-raids-on-ukraines-mykolaiv-odesa
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-odesa-strike-grain-facilities-naval-drill/32512956.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/21/world/europe/ukraine-russia-grain-shipping.html
https://www.ft.com/content/21065943-4b8c-4f22-a91a-806b5d571860
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-rebuffs-un-chiefs-call-return-black-sea-grain-deal-2023-07-25/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-25/imf-sees-grain-prices-rising-up-to-15-from-black-sea-deal-pause?in_source=embedded-checkout-banner
https://apnews.com/article/black-sea-grain-shipments-ukraine-russia-war-3e79b0842ca97c96e73b824d0e621722
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/terror-and-security/russia-ukraine-war-missile-attacks-grain-exports/
The CNN video of UA naval drones
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/30/europe/ukraine-drones-black-sea-intl/index.html
Reporting on Erdogan claiming the extension of the grain deal
https://www.dw.com/en/erdogan-claims-putin-agreed-to-renew-black-sea-grain-deal/a-66238371
Reporting on AU and grain deal
https://www.politico.eu/article/african-union-calls-to-reinstate-the-ukrainian-grain-deal/
Reporting on Sevastopol defences
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/04/new-defenses-show-russia-on-defensive-in-sevastopol-as-ukraine-attacks/
Opinion piece by retired US admiral on the possibility of escorting navy ships
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2023/07/26/commentary/world-commentary/russian-ukraine-grain-ships/
Australian Exports:
https://www.agriculture.gov.au/about/news/australian-wheat-export-snapshot-jan-23
Decline in UA production
https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2023-02-27/agricultural-production-ukraine-has-declined-significantly
Ukraine drone attacks
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/ukraines-drone-raid-on-russian-naval-base-was-tactically-innovative-but-not-revolutionary/
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/29/drone-attack-repelled-in-sevastopol-moscow-installed-official
http://www.hisutton.com/Ukraine-Maritime-Drones-Evolution.html
International Law Studies Vol 64, The Law of Naval Operations
The Law of Submarine Warfare Today - Jon L. Jacobson
https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1756&context=ils
Bridge attack:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66229533
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — The Black Sea
00:01:29 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:42 — The Black Sea Campaign To 2023
00:10:39 — The Bridge
00:18:58 — The Grain Deal
00:24:19 — Cutting The Lifeline?
00:36:42 — Grain, Markets, Politics
00:42:40 — Impacting The Players?
00:50:23 — Alternative Options
00:56:51 — A New Theatre Of War?
00:59:00 — Conclusions
01:00:17 — Channel Update